Guillaume Niarfeix: Expert Fix for Nigeria Oil Production

Guillaume Niarfeix, Managing Director of SPIE Global Services Energy Nigeria and Ghana, has spent over two decades working in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector. Speaking at the French Week Business Forum in Lagos in November 2023, he offered a frank and expert assessment of Nigeria’s oil production decline — and what must be done to reverse it.

Nigeria’s oil sector tells a story of extraordinary potential and chronic underperformance. As the country’s primary source of foreign exchange earnings, crude oil production directly determines Nigeria’s economic fortunes — making the sector’s prolonged decline one of the most consequential challenges facing the Nigerian economy today.

According to data published by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Nigeria has historically been Africa’s top oil producer, recording its highest crude oil output at 2.5 million barrels per day. But that peak feels increasingly distant as the country grapples with a production decline that has persisted for nearly two decades.

The Decline in Numbers

The Expert Diagnosis By Guillaume Niarfeix – MD, SPIE (Nigeria & Ghana)

Guillaume Niarfeix, Managing Director of SPIE Global Services Energy Nigeria and Ghana, brought one of the most informed and candid perspectives on Nigeria’s oil production crisis to the French Week Business Forum held in Nigeria in November 2023. With over two decades of experience operating in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector, his assessment carries the weight of lived experience rather than theoretical analysis.

Niarfeix framed the production decline with characteristic directness:

“We used to produce in Nigeria around 2.2 million barrels a day. We’re now down to 1.2, still up from 850 not so long ago, so people are trying. I’ve seen that the government also announced that we will be back to 2.2 soon. I think it’s an interesting statement. First of all, you’re losing 10% to 15% of production every year if you don’t invest because of the normal diminishing of reservoir. The reason why the productions have reduced at the end of the day is just because the investment has not been there.”

Guillaume Niarfeix

This is the core of Nigeria’s oil production problem laid bare. Unlike pipeline vandalism or crude theft — which are symptoms — the fundamental cause according to Niarfeix is chronic underinvestment. Oil reservoirs naturally lose 10% to 15% of their productive capacity annually without fresh capital injection. Nigeria has not consistently invested at the levels required to arrest this natural decline, let alone grow production.

Political and Legal Uncertainty: The Investment Killer

Beyond underinvestment Niarfeix identified a second critical factor deterring the capital Nigeria’s oil sector desperately needs — uncertainty around political and legal stability.

“The reason for that is a lot of uncertainty around the stability politically and legally; clearly, the PIB and PIA, which was passed, I think, last year or the year before. There’s a lot of commenting on this PIA. The truth is it has the merit to exist, so we are happy to have something that gives us the rule of the game, basically. The rules are difficult, but at least we know them and we can play. I think we will see investment in the very near future.”

Guillaume Niarfeix

This is a nuanced and important observation. The Petroleum Industry Act — despite its imperfections and the controversy surrounding its provisions — provides the regulatory clarity that serious investors require before committing billions of dollars to long-cycle oil projects. Niarfeix’s acknowledgment that difficult but known rules are preferable to uncertainty reflects the pragmatic calculus of international energy companies evaluating Nigeria against competing investment destinations across Africa and beyond.

The Investment Reality: Billions and Years

Niarfeix was equally direct about what restoring Nigeria’s production to its historic levels would actually require — dismantling any illusions about quick fixes:

“To increase the production of 1 million barrels per day, it will take in my opinion billions of dollars and 5 to 7 years minimum investment as a cycle, so we need to start ASAP and not waste any time.”

Guillaume Niarfeix

This timeline is sobering but honest. Nigeria cannot wish or policy-statement its way back to 2.2 million barrels per day. It requires sustained, large-scale capital commitment over a multi-year horizon — and that investment cycle needs to begin immediately for any meaningful production recovery to materialise within this decade.

Niarfeix also recognised TotalEnergies as a notable exception to the broader underinvestment pattern — acknowledging the company’s decade-long commitment to Nigeria as evidence that patient, conviction-driven investment in the country’s oil sector remains viable for those who trust in Nigeria’s long-term potential.

Nigeria’s Paradox

Nigeria’s oil production crisis exists within a broader paradox. Despite rising poverty rates, infrastructure deficits, pervasive insecurity and persistent unemployment challenges, Nigeria remains the largest economy on the African continent and the undisputed economic powerhouse of West Africa.

The oil sector’s underperformance is not a reflection of Nigeria’s ceiling — it is a reflection of how far the country is operating below it. The prescription from Guillaume Niarfeix is clear: consistent investment, regulatory stability and an urgent sense of time. Nigeria cannot afford to waste another decade debating while its reservoirs naturally decline.

The clock, as Niarfeix makes clear, is already running.

Amebopreneur